Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 215.349293 261.007486 317.285023 392.929760 493.798897 6.264386e+02 8.188939e+02
2025-07-13 171.500538 227.989096 307.036424 430.165580 626.016195 9.430792e+02 1.538411e+03
2025-07-20 145.480233 206.468653 300.076591 463.464754 764.141699 1.350985e+03 2.779407e+03
2025-07-27 126.794520 189.121979 291.912489 488.739404 899.423593 1.853068e+03 4.894731e+03
2025-08-03 111.704729 173.229674 280.681503 502.824302 1019.793029 2.431302e+03 8.409207e+03
2025-08-10 98.983255 158.345264 266.945136 506.300957 1118.913724 3.063424e+03 1.415951e+04
2025-08-17 87.463978 143.314297 249.263657 495.063822 1175.896915 3.643553e+03 2.260784e+04
2025-08-24 77.963272 130.340381 232.798029 481.263604 1219.685584 4.251515e+03 3.627517e+04
2025-08-31 70.069781 119.174143 217.805915 466.477582 1254.004127 4.893699e+03 5.922409e+04
2025-09-07 68.032078 118.945502 225.698461 512.781330 1526.938363 7.356294e+03 2.008281e+05
2025-09-14 63.345099 112.721721 219.165623 517.892162 1655.454391 9.344430e+03 5.831555e+05
2025-09-21 60.114578 109.026331 217.698746 537.449089 1864.489478 1.282079e+04 3.733084e+06
2025-09-28 55.616565 102.312353 208.448175 532.274558 1971.038652 1.606469e+04 5.986576e+07
2025-10-05 54.493374 102.719215 216.735764 587.667715 2456.090264 2.841821e+04 NaN
2025-10-12 53.024975 102.142777 222.460304 637.822513 3001.785765 5.175030e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 51.126976 100.314706 224.521298 676.227764 3553.033745 9.450433e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 48.799968 97.174891 222.376595 697.748650 4034.190369 1.671339e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 46.205570 93.082921 216.796253 703.073321 4404.108208 2.818141e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 43.248776 87.792748 206.869565 685.878898 4540.297204 4.096710e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 40.481007 82.700361 196.789666 664.834033 4617.150415 5.827445e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 37.942334 77.941682 187.047545 642.374395 4655.631417 8.212276e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 37.779194 79.121299 195.683159 713.012395 6067.236910 6.204711e+06 NaN
2025-12-07 36.216709 76.555855 192.124999 720.863107 6668.335672 3.262547e+07 NaN